Global Shocks and Market Swings: Pahalgam Terrorist Attack and India’s retaliation ignites market volatility
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Week 17: 21st-27th April, 2025
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Highlights of the Week
Major Global Indices: trend analysis, key pivots and technicals
S&P500
Nasdaq
US Dollar Index (DXY)
Indian Indices: trend analysis, key pivots and technicals
Nifty50
Nifty500
Midcap Index
SmallCap Index
Precious Metals
Gold Futures
Market Breadth of Indian Stock Market
Sectoral Indices
Winning Stocks
What should traders do in this market scenario?
Weekly Stock Market Report: Highlights of the Week (April 21-27, 2025)
Hey traders, let’s unpack the entire week’s action!
INDIA
On April 22, 2025, a tragic terrorist attack in Pahalgam (Jammu and Kashmir), in the Baisaran valley, killed 26 civilians, mostly tourists, escalating geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan. This was extremely shocking and sad! Every Indian strongly condemned the coward act of terrorism. The Resistance Front, an affiliate of Lashkar-e-Taiba, claimed responsibility, targeting non-Muslim male tourists and escalating tensions with Pakistan. India responded by putting the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty "in abeyance," closing the Attari border post, and initiating diplomatic measures, which could heighten regional instability and impact cross-border trade. On Sunday, the LeT Commander Altaf Lalli has been terminated in a gunfight at J&K. This can make the stock market nervous, in the coming week(s), as the Pakistan’s response is still awaited. Any border front escalation can make the market participants jittery!
FIIs injected ₹17,800 crore into Indian markets, driven by optimism around upcoming Q4 results. However, the IMF forecasts India's GDP growth at 6.5% for 2025, down from 7% in 2024, reflecting global headwinds.
GLOBAL (USA FOCUSSED):
On April 21, 2025, major US stock indices experienced a sharp decline triggered by Trump's continued attacks on Fed Chairman - Jerome Powell, raising concerns about the Fed's independence and monetary policy direction.
Gold surged to record high (touched INR 1 lakh/10g mark). US Dollar weakened sliding to three-year low.
Corporate earnings are mixed.
Analysts at Silicon Valley are expecting high inflation of 6%+, highest since 1981.
US Indices recovered partially on 23rd April, 2025, as Trump showed a softer stance on tariffs and Fed.
IMPLICATIONS FOR TRADERS:
Indian Markets: The Pahalgam Terrorist attack could lead to increased volatility, particularly for tourism and regional stocks. Defense and infrastructure sectors might see a boost from increased government spending on security. India has strongly responded using diplomatic and non-violence measures. The border tensions between India and Pakistan are high, but so far there has been controlled escalations. FII inflows provide some support, but geopolitical risks remain a key concern.
US Markets: Expect continued choppiness as traders navigate trade war risks, Fed policy uncertainty, and weak consumer sentiment. Defensive sectors like healthcare and consumer staples may outperform, while tech and growth stocks could face pressure unless tariff fears ease. Gold's rally suggests a risk-averse environment, benefiting gold miners and related assets.
Let’s now DeepDive into the technical charts, and see what’s cooking in the price action of major Indices!
Major Global Indices
S&P500 Index has reclaimed its short term EMAs - 10D & 21D, closing the week above the neckline resistance. However it is still trading below the long term EMAs (50D & 200D). As long as the Index doesn’t reclaim them, the long term trend is bearish. Need to see a higher-high for trend reversal confirmation.
Nasdaq Index has reclaimed its short term EMAs - 10D and 21D, closing the week above the neckline resistance. However it is still trading below the long term EMAs (50D and 200D). As long as the Index doesn’t reclaim them, the long term trend is bearish. Need to see a higher-high for trend reversal confirmation.
US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading below all it’s key EMAs (21D, 51D and 200D), after it broke the major support of level on 5th November’24 (Trump’s win). Tariff volatility is making the USD weaker.
Indian Indices
Nifty50 Index gave a strong weekly closing above all key EMAs and above the neckline resistance of W/Double-Bottom pattern. The pullback action on Friday, was in response to the Pahalgam Attack as the market saw selling to reduce portfolio risk over the weekend. The bias is still in favor of the bulls, as long as the Index is above its short term EMAs - 10D and 21D, and the long term 200D EMA (for long term trend). Retesting the ‘W’ pattern neckline is a natural reaction, however a closing below can trigger more selling. Let’s find out how Nifty reacts at key pivots, during the next week.
Nifty500 Index is also creating a pattern similar to Nifty50. This Index covers wider universe of stocks (500), unlike Nifty50 which is composed of 50 heavyweight companies.
Nifty Midcap Index made a higher high, and closed the week above all it’s key EMAs - 10D, 21D, 50D, and 200D. The Index needs to protect the neckline, as any closing below this level can trigger further selling. After the higher-high created during the week, the Index needs a higher-low, in furtherance for trend reversal confirmation (double bottom pattern).
Nifty Smallcap Index is currently trading above short/mid term EMAs- 10D, 21D & 50D, but still below the long-term 200D EMA. Index has failed to close above the neckline resistance of ‘Double Bottom’ pattern. Let’s see if the Smallcap Index can reclaim it’s 200D EMA during the next week!
PRECIOUS METAL : GOLD
Gold rallied to make a new all-time high touching the intraday INR 1Lakh/10g mark! This was followed by sharp selling in Gold, as global volatility lightens after Trump takes a softer stance for tariffs and Fed. Did you notice the exhaustion ‘gaps’ in the chart (highlighted in green)? This fast move is usually a sign of discreet selling, as big institutions need this frenzy to offload! This new ATH now acts as a major resistance, both in price as well as psychologically.
MARKET BREADTH OF THE INDIAN STOCK MARKET
Market Breadth at the end of Week 17, 2025 (Source: ChartInk)
Stocks trading above 21DMA: increased from 81% to 87% during the week, but closed at 65% as the last day saw selling pressure (Pahalgam attack + volatility + market was overbought in short term).
Daily Market Moves: on 25th April, 1065 stocks witnessed a price fall of more than 3%, and 262 stock fell more than 5%. This shows market closed nervous , due to the now, India-Pakistan strained relations.
52 Week High/Low: this is an important parameter to analyse the health and trend of the market. The coming week can be very volatile. Use this parameter judge the overall market. As long as higher number of stocks are making new 52W high, the Bulls are winning!
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