Indian Stock Market shines amid continued global volatility, closes the week above pre-tariff level.
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Week 16: 14th April - 20th April, 2025
TABLE OF CONTENTS
What happened during the week?
Major Global Indices: trend analysis, key pivots and technicals
S&P500
Nasdaq
US Dollar Index (DXY)
Indian Indices: trend analysis, key pivots and technicals
Nifty50
Nifty500
Midcap Index
SmallCap Index
Precious Metals
Gold Futures
Market Breadth of Indian Stock Market
Sectoral Indices
Winning Stocks
What should traders do in this market scenario?
What happened during the week?
Hey traders, buckle up for a whirlwind week in the Indian stock market! From navigating the choppy waters of U.S.- China trade tensions to staging a stunning recovery, India’s markets have been the talk of the town. In this DeepDive Report, we’ll unpack the entire week’s market action for the Indian stock market trader. Let’s get started!
India’s Markets Steal the Global Spotlight
The Indian stock market didn’t just weather the storm this week—it danced in the rain! The Nifty50 roared back with a ~4.5% surge, closing at 22,828. What makes this rally jaw-dropping? India became the first major global market to fully recover from the losses triggered by U.S. tariff announcements earlier in April. While other markets like China’s CSI 300 (-3.9%) and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (-7.8%) were still licking their wounds, India stood tall. The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions and uncertainty over the 90-day tariff pause’s outcome are likely to keep volatility elevated.
The week kicked off with a bang after an extended weekend. On Tuesday, April 15, the Nifty 50 soared up to 2.4%, zooming past its pre-tariff levels from April 2. Volatility took a breather too, with the India VIX dropping 20% to 16.05 from a high of 22.79 on April 7. Sure, it’s still above pre-tariff levels, but the cooling sentiment gave traders some much-needed relief.
What fueled this comeback?
India’s economy is less exposed to trade shocks. With only 12% of its economy tied to goods exports and a mere 2.1% of GDP linked to U.S. merchandise exports, India’s domestic-driven growth is a shield.
Add to that tariff exemptions for sectors like pharmaceuticals and falling oil prices (U.S. crude dipped below $60/barrel), insulating Indian economy from global shockwaves of volatility.
Mix of rock-solid domestic fundamentals, a flood of foreign portfolio investor (FPI) inflows (₹14,000 crore pumped back by the FPIs).
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on April 9, slashed the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6%, signaling an accommodative stance to prop up growth amid global trade chaos.
Growing optimism about a potential U.S.-India Bilateral Trade Deal. Once materialized, this can be a big positive! Watch out for updates.
Major Global Indices
S&P500 Index is consolidation below all the key EMAs - 21D(green), 50D(red) and 200D(orange). As long as the Index doesn’t reclaim them, the trend is bearish.
Nasdaq Index is currently trading below it's key EMAs - 21D, 50D and 200D. As long as the Index doesn’t reclaim them, the trend is bearish.
Bitcoin consolidates in a tight range near the convergence of it’s key EMAs. The double bottom on the technical charts will be confirmed when it breaks out above the neckline resistance zone.
US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading below all it’s key EMAs (21D, 51D and 200D), also below the important pivot of 5th November’24.
Indian Indices
Nifty50 Index gave a strong weekly closing above all key EMAs and above the neckline resistance of W/Double-Bottom pattern. This is a big positive! The opening day of the week, Index closed +2.1% higher, this can be labelled as the Day-1 of the market’s attempt to rally higher. Upcoming days are very very important for Traders! The bias is in favor of the bulls. During the previous week, we suggested a ‘W’/’Double Bottom’ pattern on the technical charts, shared the key pivots and resistance zone. Our analysis was accurate, timely and data-backed. The confirmation of ‘double-bottom’ pattern is a sign of trend reversal from downtrend to ‘uptrend’.
Nifty500 Index is also creating a pattern similar to Nifty50, covering wider universe of stocks (500), unlike Nifty50 which is composed of 50 heavyweight companies. This week’s strong close above all key EMAs and above the neckline resistance of ‘W’ (double bottom) pattern is a big positive!
Nifty Midcap Index is forming a ‘double-bottom’ pattern - confirmation will come when price breaks above the neckline resistance. Smallcap Index is currently trading above 21D & 50D EMAs, but still below the long-term 200D EMA.
Nifty Smallcap Index is forming a ‘double-bottom’ pattern - confirmation will come when price breaks above the neckline resistance. Smallcap Index is currently trading above 21D & 50D EMAs, but still below the long-term 200D EMA.
PRECIOUS METAL : GOLD
Gold Futures rallied creating a new all-time high. Gold has shown tremendous outperformance since the start of 2025. If the volatility reduces in coming week(s), we can see fund rotation from Gold (safe heaven) to equities. Upcoming week(s) will be interesting. Keep an eye!
MARKET BREADTH OF THE INDIAN STOCK MARKET
Market Breadth at the end of Week 16, 2025 (Source: ChartInk)
Stocks trading above 21DMA: increased from 45% (last week’s close) to now 81%.
Daily Market Moves: look at the stocks with price change ‘above 3%’ - it was 990 stocks on 15th April, highest since 5th March. This can be categorised as the 1st attempt of market to rally higher.
52 Week High/Low: the important thing to note is the falling number of stocks making 52W lows. This shows that the bulls are taking over the bears.
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WHAT SHOULD A TRADER DO IN THIS MARKET SCENARIO?
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