Macho Pride leads to series of tariff escalations by US and China. Markets record highest gain in last 5 years as Trump announces 90 days pause. Final leg of tariff war?
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Week 15: 7th April - 11th April, 2025
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Major Global Indices: trend analysis, key pivots and technicals
S&P500
Nasdaq
US Dollar Index (DXY)
Indian Indices: trend analysis, key pivots and technicals
IndiaVIX
Nifty50
Nifty500
Midcap Index
SmallCap Index
Precious Metals
Gold Futures
Market Breadth of Indian Stock Market
Sectoral Indices
Winning Stocks
What should traders do in this market scenario?
GLOBAL INDICES
We just witnessed another exciting but extremely volatile week as we saw tariff war between US and China, fueled by ego and adamancy to supremacy. Both the countries kept on increasing the tariffs and retaliatory tariffs, without paying any heed to the damage done to global countries. In an attempt to counter China, Trump during the mid-week announced 90-days pause on Tariffs for countries other than China. Markets rallied their best in past five years, on 9th April’25.
Something interesting happened on Sunday, that remain to be celebrated! Trump has exempted Chinese Imports of computers, smartphones, and chip-making equipment (approx. $100B) from retaliatory tariffs. Total Imports from China are $440B i.e. 23% of Chinese imports are now exempt. A sharp U-turn by Trump, is a positive for global markets!
Exactly 2 days before this, we shared a post on ‘X’ suggesting the likelihood of ‘damage control’ measures to follow as the absurd and insanely high tariffs made no economic sense.
Post shared on X (click to read)
LEARNING: Such a week can give deep cuts to the capital of amateur traders. Stupidity would be an understatement for any unnecessary and hasty action in such a scenario. Remember, you don’t have to trade in every market scenario. World’s best Stock Traders know when to trade and when to take the foot off the accelerator i.e. remain in cash. However, being in cash doesn’t mean to be inactive or hibernate, rather it’s time to be more active than ever, to create a watchlist of stocks that are showing signs of potential leadership! When the Indices raise the green flag, and the environment becomes ripe to trade, you catch hold of the leading stocks.
Every trader should accept that technical charts (of stocks/indices) ultimately speak the truth. The global cues are also hidden in the price action of major global indices. This helps in understanding the under currents in the stock market. Therefore, before we look at the Indian stock market scenario, it’s important to see what happened in the Major Global Indices, during the week:-
S&P500 Index undercuts the low of the previous week, entering the ‘bear market’ zone after correcting more than 20% from All-Time High (ATH). However, it looks more like a solid shakeout as the Index recovers not only the same day, infact it rallied 9.5% on 9th April (highest single day gain since Covid) indicating buying strength. The S&P500 is still trading below the key MAs - 21(green), 50(red) and 200(orange).
Nasdaq Index saw a free fall drop last week. This week was complete opposite, Index recovered 7.5% during the week, as a solid uptick in buyers’ strength was displayed on 9th April when the Index recorded a massive 12% single-day gain. The technical charts suggest a likely ‘double-bottom’ pattern, a trend reversal pattern. However, the confirmation will only come when it crosses the resistance near it’s neckline. Nasdaq index is currently trading below it's key EMAs - 21D, 50D and 200 D.
Bitcoin showed remarkable strength as it didn’t test a new lower-low, rather bounced back from its support range (previous lower low- see chart). The technical chart shows a likely ‘W’ or ‘Double Bottom’ pattern in the making. Confirmation will come when it goes past it’s neckline (resistance). BTC is trading just at it’s 200 DMA. This is clear outperformance of Bitcoin over S&P500 or Nasdaq.
US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading below all it’s key MAs (21D, 51D and 200D), also below the important pivot of 5th November’24. This week saw a new lower-low being created in the USD index. This indicates USD is losing it’s value vis-a-vis other global currencies. This can be a big positive for FIIs investing in Indian stock market. The strengthening of USD vis-a-vis INR was key reason for foreign investors to pump-out their investments from Indian equities.
INDIAN INDICES
IndiaVIX Index recorded a massive surge of 65% on the opening of the week i.e. 7th April. This single day surge is higher than what was seen during Covid crash. The closest surge was recorded on 24th August, 2015 when the IndiaVIX jumped 64%, which is popularly known as Black Monday. Do you want to know more about the event that sparked such high volatility? Read the blogpost (click here). Such days of extremely high volatility and fear are a treat for long-term investors and institutions to buy. Experienced Traders also use this opportunity to pick top names for a technical bounce, until the Indices resume an uptrend.
Nifty50 Index opens the week with a sharp drop of 5% making a new lower-low, but recovered it all during the week open of the week. The opening week’s candle is important to take a note of - it does not have a lower shadow/wick indicating strong buying support. There’s a likely ‘W’ or ‘double-bottom’ pattern, in the charts - confirmation will come when it breaks above its neckline resistance (above 23750 level). Once confirmed, this pattern shows change in the trend - from downtrend to uptrend. Index is trading just close to its 21D EMA, still below it’s key MAs - 51D and 200D. Coming week(s) can reverse in trend for the broader Indian stock market!
Nifty500 Index is also creating a pattern similar to Nifty50, covering wider universe of stocks (500), unlike Nifty50 which is composed of 50 heavyweight companies.
Nifty Midcap Index has outperformed during the week (vis-a-vis Nifty50, Nifty500 and Nifty Smallcap), as it didn’t make a new LL, rather bounced back from its previous low. Clear sign of buyers jumping in to support the Index. There’s a ‘double-bottom’ formation in the technical charts - confirmation will come when price breaks above the neckline that coincides with 200DMA. Midcap Index is currently trading at 21D EMA, but still below 51D and 200D EMAs.
Nifty Smallcap Index created a new LL at the opening of the week, however recovered the entire fall during the week. We can see a ‘double-bottom’ pattern forming in the technical charts - confirmation will come when price breaks above the neckline resistance. Smallcap Index is currently trading just at 21D EMA, but still below 51D and 200D EMAs.
PRECIOUS METAL : GOLD
Gold Futures rallied 6.4% during the week, creating a new all-time high. Gold has shown tremendous outperformance since the start of 2025. Compare it with any major index we have discussed above. Also, if the volatility reduces in coming week(s), we can see fund rotation from Gold (safe heaven) to equities. Charts will show this sectoral rotation, which is why it is very important to study technical charts of global indices and precious metals to find clues for tracing global money.
MARKET BREADTH OF THE INDIAN STOCK MARKET
Market Breadth at the end of Week 15, 2025 (Source: ChartInk)
Stocks trading above 21DMA: increased from 39% (last week’s close) to now 45%.
Daily Market Moves: look at the stocks with price change ‘above 3%’ - it was 731 stocks on 8th April and 735 stocks on 11th April. Compare it with the stocks ‘below 3%’ on the opening day when IndiaVIX surged 65% - it was 1578 stocks!! This is the highest number recorded during this global tariff war. Looks like a good shopping day for investors who bought the fear as retail sold their holdings in panic.
52 Week High/Low: on 7th April (panic day), 550 stocks made 52W low. Important number to note as market bounced back sharply after that.
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SECTORAL INDICES
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WINNING STOCKS
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STOCKS TO KEEP IN YOUR WATCHLIST
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WHAT SHOULD A TRADER DO IN THIS MARKET SCENARIO?
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